Retail investors will have to do their own homework if they want to get exposure to the government’s big infrastructure drive that’s already dangling public-private partnerships to international investors.
As reported in The Bottom Line on Dealmakers over the weekend, Craigs Investment Partners doesn’t have any plans to revisit its New Zealand Social Infrastructure Fund – an entity stood up almost 15 years ago to give investors exposure to the PPP-programme launched by John Key’s administration, investing alongside the NZ Superannuation Fund into a Morrison-managed group of trans-Tasman assets.
The announcements came thick and fast at prime minister Christopher Luxon’s investment summit to signal tangible opportunities such as infrastructure PPPs and more investment-friendly regulatory settings to convince the global investors to sign up and bring their funds and expertise Downunder.
And while KiwiSaver managers were also in the room, with several keen to participate in those opportunities, there wasn’t much for a retail investor to get their teeth into.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t options to get exposure to the major building programmes once they’re up and running.
While Infratil seems an obvious candidate, the infrastructure investor’s manager, Morrison, has tended to use other vehicles to participate in PPPs.
Familiar names
Building materials firm Fletcher Building is another familiar name, given its past involvement in the likes of the Wiri prison and Pūhoi to Warkworth highway PPPs. Still, its future structure remains up in the air as new management run the rule over the business.
Fletcher’s shares sank to an adjusted 22-year low around $2.63 in September as it again grappled with cost blowouts on legacy projects, although they’ve since recovered to $3.21 as investors cast their eye to an eventual upswing in the construction market.
The stock’s up 13% so far this year, compared to a 6.4% decline for the S&P/NZX 50 index.
And the company acknowledged increased infrastructure work underpinned a 16% increase in revenue for its construction division through the last six months of 2024, when the country was in the deepest part of its economic downturn.
Similarly, Steel & Tube Holdings and Vulcan Steel both predict a pick-up in activity as lower interest rates revive demand for their products after what they’ve described as some of the toughest trading conditions they’ve faced.
Steel & Tube has been trading near four-year lows, closing at 79 cents on Friday and down 7.1% so far this year, while Vulcan Steel has clawed back its losses through 2023 and 2024, closing at $8.60 and up 9.8% in 2025.
Dual-listed infrastructure firms Downer EDI, which is listed on both sides of the Tasman but only trades on the ASX, has plenty of experience managing PPPs in Australia, and is well-represented in New Zealand through its transport and utilities management arms, while Ventia Services Group has the maintenance contract for the Transmission Gully PPP north of Wellington among its suite of local operations.
Aussie exceptionalism
The Australian infrastructure firms have both outperformed the 4.5% decline on the S&P/ASX 200 index so far this year, with Downer up 2.5% and Ventia up 18%.
And those projects will need people to work on them, with a net 34% of construction firms already expecting to take on staff in ANZ’s February business outlook.
Contract firm Accordant Group has been surprised the extent of the economic downturn, with the shares trading near a record low at 37.5 cents on Friday. In particular, demand from its white-collar recruitment arm felt the brunt of public and private sector firms dialling back their spending over the past two years.
The shares have extended their steep declines of the past two years, and are down 23% so far this year, albeit on fairly light trading volumes.
The recruitment firm’s AWF blue collar division also faced reduced demand, although it was more optimistic about the prospect of government infrastructure projects starting in the second half of 2025.
Accordant has been running training programmes through the protracted downturn, which it reckons will speed deployment when people start recruiting again, with four times as many people achieving its construction health and safety national standard in 2024 than the prior year.
That’s not to say any of these firms are assured of winning any work in the government’s programme, but then retail investors don’t look like having any direct investment options either.
The bottom line being that it will take some lateral thinking and research for retail investors to join the infrastructure drive for NZ Inc.
Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Curious News.