NZX50 slides 4.7% in March qtr on SaaS fears, Middle East conflict

New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index dropped 4.7% in the March quarter as tech companies fell out of favour amid concerns over artificial intelligence encroaching on software firms, while US President Donald Trump’s attacks on Iran sparked a wave of fear that central banks will have to hike interest rates as oil prices spiked.

Much of the quarterly slide came in March, which was the NZX50’s worst month since January 2022, with local software firms Serko, Vista Group International and Gentrack at the bottom of the leaderboard as they felt the double-whammy of the AI threat and rising interest rates, while retirement village operators Summerset Group Holdings, Ryman Healthcare and Oceania Healthcare dropped sharply through the quarter.

A late reprieve in Tuesday trading eased some of the period’s pain, with the NZX50 joining a broad rally across Asia amid reports Trump is willing to end the conflict in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen, with heavyweights Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Meridian Energy, Infratil and Auckland International Airport buoying the benchmark.

And KMD Brands unveiled its deeply discounted capital raising and first-half result, tapping institutional investors for $6.8 million of a $65 million injection to shore up the retailer’s balance sheet.

March madness

The NZX50 gained 163.19 points, or 1.3%, to 12,912.11 on Tuesday, with 34 stocks gaining, nine declining and seven unchanged.

That took the monthly decline to 5.9% as the conflict in the Middle East and a spike in oil prices stoked broader inflation fears, triggering increases in wholesale interest rates as bond traders predicted hikes from central banks.

That added to the rough quarter, with the NZX50 snapping three quarterly gains with its 4.7% decline – smaller than the 6.4% a year earlier when US President Trump upended the world trade order with his tariff regime. Serko posted the steepest drop through the period, sinking 46%, while Vista dropped 35% and Gentrack fell 21%, with software companies first knocked by fears that AI would undermine software-as-a-service business models, and then pushed further down due to their sensitivity to interest rates.

In the same vein, rate-sensitive retirement village firms were under pressure as Summerset, Ryman and Oceania dropped between 24% and 28% in the quarter.

“First we had the SaaS apocalypse, when Serko, Vista and Gentrack were hard hit in our market, and then we had the Trump apocalypse hit in Iran,” said Matt Goodson, managing director at Salt Funds Management. “We’ve had quite a sharp rise in interest rates and property stocks have been smacked.”

Two-year swap rates jumped 54 basis points to 3.47% in the three-month period, while 10-year swaps were up 27 basis points at 4.36%.

Declines among commercial landlords in the quarter ranged from 3.6% for Goodman Property Trust – which didn’t trade today after unitholders approved its corporatisation – to a 22% slump for Stride Property.

Balancing big volumes

Trading on Tuesday was heavy, with the usual end-of-quarter rebalancing and a reweighting of an S&P infrastructure index. Turnover across the mainboard was $280.2 million, of which Auckland Airport accounted for $109 million as it rose 0.9% to $7.97, while F&P Healthcare gained 3.5% to $37.39 with $31.9 million traded and Infratil advanced 1.5% to $11.65 on a turnover of $18.9 million.

Those heavyweights underpinned the index’s gain on Tuesday, with Meridian up 1.3% at $5.53 as well.

Vista posted the biggest gain on the day, up 5% to end the quarter at $1.69, staunching some of its earlier losses. Meanwhile, Serko rose 3.1% to $1.65, while Gentrack dipped 0.3% to $6.62.

Air New Zealand rose 3.6% to 43 cents, easing its monthly slide of 23% as the national carrier was hit hard by rising fuel costs from the energy shock.

Turners Automotive Group gained 4.8% to $8.82, taking its quarterly gain to 6.4%, extending its run of positive quarters to seven.

NZX was unchanged at $1.31 on Tuesday after externalising the management contract of its QuayStreet Asset Management funds arm, while Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund units rose 1% to $8.20 after the dairy exporter completed its sale of the Mainland consumer business to France’s Lactalis.

Fletcher Building posted the steepest decline on the day, falling 1.7% to $2.95 and taking its quarterly slide to 20%. Mercury NZ slipped 1.4% to $6.24 on Tuesday, while SkyCity Entertainment Group decreased 1.4% to 70 cents.

Meanwhile KMD Brands remained in a trading halt after revealing plans to raise $65 million at 6 cents a share through a placement to institutions and a renounceable entitlement offering, a discount to the 19.5 cents price the shares last traded at before they were halted last week. The funds will go towards bolstering its balance sheet.

The retailer also released its first-half result showing an improvement in underlying gross margin, increased sales, and a narrower loss.

Outside the benchmark index, Santana Minerals rose 3.1% to 83 cents after shareholders approved a placement to fund its proposed gold mine development in Central Otago. The would-be miner sank 21% in the quarter.

Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Curious News.