US tariffs back to the fore as earnings season accelerates

The local earnings season has been thrown a curveball as it gathers pace after the US Supreme Court tossed out President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging tariff regime, only for the White House to impose a new 15% import levy under a different legal authority.

US and European stock markets rallied on Friday and the kiwi gained against a softer greenback after the ruling, although futures markets have been more circumspect since the new tariffs were announced and are pointing to a small increase when the ASX opens across the Tasman.

Broadband network operator Chorus, power company Genesis Energy, rental campervan operator Tourism Holdings and honey products maker Comvita are first up to report their earnings on the NZX today, while Statistics New Zealand’s quarter retail sales figures are expected to show a pickup in consumer spending through the final three months of 2025.

Meanwhile, Brent crude futures eased amid reports the US is mulling a more targeted strike on Iranian military or government sites as it seeks to press the Middle Eastern nation to reach a deal over its nuclear programme, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff due to meet Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi this week.

No deal

New Zealand trade minister Todd McClay expects considerable uncertainty will persist over the US tariff regime after the Supreme Court shot down President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day regime as being unlawful, only for the White House to impose a new 15% levy on goods entering the world’s biggest economy under a different legal authority.

McClay told RNZ’s Morning Report programme that local officials need to see the detail of the new tariffs before working with domestic exporters.

The kiwi dollar rose to 59.78 US cents at 7am in Auckland from 59.47 cents last week, and stocks on Wall Street rallied on Friday as investors welcomed the ruling. The S&P 500 rose 0.7% on Friday and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9%, while across the Atlantic, the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.9% and France’s CAC 40 jumped 1.4%.

“The ruling that President Trump’s tariffs, imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, could more than halve the US average effective tariff rate,” Bank of New Zealand senior interest rate strategist Stuart Ritson said in a note. “The IEEPA ruling left unresolved the issue of refunds, with lower courts to determine whether companies are entitled to recover tariff payments that could total up to US$170 billion if fully permitted.”

Futures markets have been more circumspect as investors weigh up the latest moves, pointing to a 0.2% gain for Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index when trading opens across the Tasman.

Inside oil

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures dipped 0.1% to US$71.24 a barrel amid reports the White House is considering a smaller targeted strike on Iranian military or government sites to push the Middle Eastern nation to reach a deal on its nuclear aspirations.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghachi is expected to meet US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Geneva this week to seek a diplomatic solution to the impasse.

Chipmaker Nvidia is the big US quarterly result investors are waiting for this week to gauge the pace of investment in the artificial intelligence sector.

New Zealand’s corporate earnings season continues at pace this week, with Chorus and Genesis Energy the headliners today having been tagged by Forsyth Barr analysts as potentially offering a positive surprise. Rental campervan operator Tourism Holdings is also due to report, as is ailing honey products maker Comvita, which needs to raise new equity capital to shore up a weak balance sheet.

Stats NZ’s December quarter retail trade survey is due today and expected to show a 0.6% increase in household spending volumes.

Across the Tasman, fuels company Ampol and health insurer NIB are among those scheduled to report.

Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Tabrez Syed on Unsplash.