Vista to kick off earnings season as US delays Iran strike

Vista Group International kicks off the domestic earnings season when it reports its first-half result today after signing up a string of customers to its cloud product, and in the shadow of the biggest Hollywood opening of the year when Marvel’s latest Spider-Man movie hit the big screen.

Brent crude spot prices were back above US$90 a barrel heading into the weekend amid the heightened tensions between the US and Iran, although President Donald Trump delayed his threatened strike on the Islamic Republic while Middle Eastern nations work on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries again agreed to lift production.

The kiwi dollar dropped against a broadly stronger yen on Friday as Japan and the US coordinated intervention in currency markets to support the yen for the first time in 15 years, with Japanese finance minister Satsuki Katayama expected to explain the move on Monday.

And Australia’s ASX is poised for a soft start to the month, despite a stronger lead on Wall Street, where Amazon’s accelerating cloud-computing sales drove gains among tech companies.

Early starter

Forsyth Barr analysts predict strong profit growth in the upcoming reporting season to be flattered by power companies bouncing back from a soft 2025, with outlook statements likely to be cautiously optimistic as management teams weigh the uncertainty in the Middle East and the upcoming general election against a concentrated recovery in the South Island.

Cinema analytics firm Vista is an early starter in the season, with a 27% surge in first-half earnings predicted after a series of customer sign-ups to the company’s cloud service keeping it on track to meet guidance.

The software firm’s result comes after Disney’s latest Marvel blockbuster, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, took in US$355 million in North America in the biggest opening weekend this year and the second-most in Hollywood history.

Australian futures are pointing to a 1% decline for the S&P/ASX 200 index in its first trading day of the month, with elevated oil prices and the tensions in the Middle East weighing on investor sentiment, shrugging off a strong lead on Wall Street after the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1% on Friday with Amazon jumping 15% on growth for its cloud-computing business. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% and the S&P 500 rose 0.7%.

Greg Boland, market strategy consultant at Moomoo, said New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index would probably start the month cautiously higher in what’s traditionally a weak month for US equities.

“The NZX 50 is expected to open cautiously higher despite weaker ASX futures, supported by Wall Street's positive lead and the VIX easing to 15.99, its lowest level in weeks,” Boland said in a note. “However, investors should remain mindful that August has historically been one of the weakest months for US equities, making upcoming earnings results and Friday's employment report particularly important for market direction.”

Still negotiating

Meanwhile, oil will be in focus after US President Trump said he was holding off delivering new strikes on Iran to let Middle Eastern nations work on an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said his nation was in talks with Oman were in their final stages.

OPEC+ nations agreed to boost their collective production target by another 188,000 barrels a day next month, completely unwinding the reductions that were made in 2023 and providing them scope to deliver more barrels if and when the Middle East conflict ends.

Still, oil majors Chevron and ExxonMobil Holdings warned high prices would likely remain for a while as the on-again, off-again conflict left refining capacity short as the two companies reported sharp increases in second-quarter earnings on Friday.

Separately, British energy major BP said it would put its UK North Sea business up for sale.

And the Financial Times reported that UK drugmaker AstraZeneca was in talks with US rival Bristol Myers Squibb to create a merged pharmaceutical giant worth almost US$400 billion.

Meanwhile, FIFA president Gianni Infantino scrapped plans to sell a stake in the world football body’s commercial operations to private investors after a backlash from its partners, saying it was clear the project created divisions that outweighed its level of support.

The kiwi dollar fell to 92.72 yen at 7am in Auckland from 94.27 yen last week, with Japan’s currency rallying on reports of coordinated intervention in foreign exchange markets by the US and Japan. The New Zealand dollar traded at 58.82 US cents from 58.68 cents on Friday.

Local data today include Statistics New Zealand’s building consents for July, while a Chinese manufacturing gauge will also be in view.

Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Krists Luhaers on Unsplash.

This story has been updated to correct Forsyth Barr's forecast for Vista earnings growth of 27%, not a 6% decline which was the investment house's difference to consensus.