Antipodean markets eye sleepy start to last week of 2025

Australian and New Zealand markets are waking up to final few trading days of the year, with both the ASX and NZX poised to deliver positive returns in 2025, if not quite at the breakneck speed of stocks on Wall Street.

ASX futures are pointing to a soft start to Monday trading, with trans-Tasman mining stocks such as Santana Minerals set to get some attention after gold and silver prices pushed to new highs through the Christmas-shortened week.

Meanwhile, the kiwi dollar fell to a month-low against its Australian counterpart, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is seen as more likely to start hiking the benchmark interest rate.

And local exporters targeting China such as a2 Milk Co and Comvita might come in for some attention in the thinly traded sessions this week after China’s government pledged to provide more support to revive the world’s second-biggest economy, including efforts to stoke domestic consumption.

The end is nigh

Australian futures are pointing to a 0.2% dip for the S&P/ASX 200 index when trading opens across the Tasman, following a muted Boxing Day on Wall Street, where the major indices were marginally weaker.

The ASX200 has gained 7.4% so far this year, outpacing the 3.2% increase for the S&P/NZX 50 index, although lagging behind the double-digit gains for the S&P 500, FTSE 100 in London and DAX 30 in Berlin.

New Zealand’s NZX50 has gained in the past four sessions, and China-focused exporters such as a2 Milk might attract attention in the New Year-holiday shortened week after China’s Ministry of Finance outlined plans to provide more government support in 2026.

The world’s second biggest economy said it will target investment in areas such as advanced manufacturing, tech innovation and developing human capital, and said policymakers will continue to grow household incomes to drive more consumption.

Meanwhile, trans-Tasman mining companies such as Santana Minerals will be in view after precious metal prices extended their rally into the end of the year. Gold futures were up 1.3% at US$4,562 an ounce at 7am in Auckland.

Over the Christmas holiday, budget petrol chains Gull and NPD announced a deal to merge their businesses to make the second-biggest chain behind Ampol’s Z Energy, with its own import terminal at Mount Maunganui. The major oil companies have long-standing relationships with Channel Infrastructure and its import terminal in Marsden Point in Northland.

Goldeneye

That brought out the local investors on Boxing Day, with the iShares Silver Trust, SPDR Gold Shares and abrdn physical platinum exchange traded fund among the top 10 traded US securities among Sharesies users on Friday.

The kiwi dollar fell to a month-low against the Aussie, trading at 86.87 Australian cents at 7am in Auckland from 87.14 cents at 2pm on Christmas Eve, and was little changed at 58.37 US cents from 58.40 cents.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is seen as coming under pressure to raise its target cash rate to quell inflationary concerns, with policymakers not convinced the current 3.6% level isn’t restrictive enough for the economy.

Meanwhile, New Zealand’s Reserve Bank governor Anna Breman sought to stamp out expectations for early rate hikes on this side of the Tasman, talking down increases in mortgage rates as getting ahead of the central bank’s track.

Minutes to the US Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting are among the highlights on the abbreviated investment week, with the prospect of more rate cuts by the Fed high on many investors’ wish lists.

Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Thomas Kupper on Unsplash.