Earnings focus returns as antipodes gets back to work
Growing protests in Iran are keeping oil prices bubbly.
The biggest banks on Wall Street are back in reporting mode with the likes of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America among those offering their quarterly updates this week after a positive week for most major stock markets around the world in the start to 2026, while sluggish jobs data in the US on Friday did little to shift expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.
Meanwhile, oil prices remain sharply in focus as protests in Iran intensify and the regime warns of pre-emptive strikes to potential threats amid reports US President Donald Trump is being briefed on a range of options to respond to the unrest.
Australian futures are pointing to an upbeat start to the week in the antipodes, following Wall Street’s strong lead on Friday, with November retail spending figures across the Tasman expected to allay some inflationary fears the Reserve Bank of Australia might have.
And on this side of the Tasman, office workers are slowly returning to work from the summer break with the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s quarterly business survey the key piece on Tuesday of data this week, with Statistics New Zealand releasing new building consents, employment figures and inflation indicators later in the week.
Fundamentals
The major US banks are set to kick off the latest quarterly earnings season this week, with JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley all on the calendar.
Jefferies reported on Friday with stronger-than-expected revenue, although its bottom line was knocked by losses linked to the collapse of auto-parts firm First Supplier and its asset management revenue dipped in the period.
Analysts are picking revenue growth of 7.7% in the December quarter from a year earlier for the S&P 500 companies and earnings to grow 8.3%, according to FactSet analysis.
Stocks on Wall Street gained on Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.7%, after data showed the US added 50,000 jobs in December – fewer than the 70,000 expected – and reaffirming expectations for the Federal Reserve to gradually cut the federal funds rate this year.
The major US markets were stronger in their first full week of trading in 2026, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing 2.3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite increasing 1.3%. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.1% last week, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index dipped 0.1%.
Always oil
The US toppling of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro revived interest in energy stocks as the Latin American nation’s rich oil reserves come under management of the world’s biggest economy, in what’s been a subdued environment for the oil majors as Exxon Mobil joined Shell in predicting softer earnings.
Oil prices remain keenly in focus as anti-regime protests escalate in Iran, with dozens of people confirmed dead from the unrest in the past two weeks and reports of more than 500 people being killed.
US President Donald Trump has warned Iran not to fire on protestors and is reportedly receiving a briefing on options, including military strikes, to intervene, while Iran has threatened pre-emptive strikes over the threats.
Brent crude oil futures dipped 0.5% to US$63.02 a barrel at 7am in Auckland.
In the antipodes, Australian futures are pointing to a 0.3% gain for the ASX200 when trading opens across the Tasman, while the kiwi dollar traded at 57.33 US cents at 7am in Auckland from 57.43 cents last week.
Australian consumer spending figures for November due today are expected to show slower growth from the bubbly October data, which revived inflationary fears at the Reserve Bank of Australia and raised the prospect of an early rate hike across the Tasman. The kiwi dollar traded at 85.66 Australian cents from 85.78 cents last week.
There’s no major data on this side of the Tasman today, with the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion the major release when it comes out on Tuesday. Stats NZ is also due to release partial employment and inflation figures and new building permits later in the week.
