PAUL MCBETH: Observations from a Christmas food coma
It seems like 2025 was a year of everything and nothing.
Paul McBeth is the editor of The Bottom Line and Curious News, and previously worked at BusinessDesk for 15 years.
As the seemingly endless supply of ham, bread and salads bring the inevitable food coma, it’s a good time to reflect on the year that was.
And to be honest, while a lot has been said about how 2025 was a rubbish year, the fears that crept in through the first six months didn’t really seem to materialise.
Sure, the sound and the fury emanating from the White House as Trump 2.0 took hold sent jitters through everyone as the torrent of executive orders signed by President Donald J Trump came thicker and faster than most of us anticipated.
But as Simplicity economist Shamubeel Eaqub pointed out in a recent Sharesies podcast, the theme was very much one of looking through the headlines and seeing what details actually emerged.
Rustling whistling trees
The upending of the global trade system several generations have grown to know and love hasn’t been as topsy-turvy as perhaps we feared, with the almost whimsical setting of tariffs as fluid as Gen Z.
Of course, the US tariffs that have been imposed will slowly work their way through the system as firms manage their prices to the new environment and nations like ours push ever harder to find new trade accommodations, such as the free trade deal with India, which it’s hard to see the Labour opposition rejecting given our need to find new markets.
Wars continued, ceasefires were announced and ignored and the benign geopolitical environment of the pre-9/11 world accelerated its way to one where the arms race of the 21st century demands a greater share of various economies and the ambition of addressing a changing ecological environment is put on the backburner with faith being put in human ingenuity to come up with some technological advance just in the nick of time.
Ease my mind
Not that those giant global themes really seemed to resonate as much as they often do.
New Zealand has still managed to side-step the worst of the culture wars in larger Anglo-nations, even if those of us in the leafier urban suburbs do spend an unhealthy amount of time fretting about the rest of the world and ignoring those more intractable issues we have at home.
The inching towards reality when it comes to making life comfortable for our elders looks set to be a major issue come next year’s general election, but it still seems highly unlikely that our best and brightest will offer a compelling and long-lived solution, preferring incremental measures that get scorned as tinkering around the edges by those of us who live in ivory towers.
And while the scaremongering continues about slowing the decline in New Zealand’s health and education sectors, it’s still hard to see what it is we actually want to achieve when it comes to delivering healthcare and teaching the next generation in a world where everyone’s being asked to do more with less.
So full of thoughts
All of which sums up rather nicely what 2025 has been for Aotearoa New Zealand.
A year where people have strived to keep their heads above water, not knowing what the future holds and battening down the hatches for a slightly easier 2026.
The economic signals have already been creeping through that the nation’s middle classes aren’t feeling the pinch quite as much, with mortgage rates coming down and wallets being opened a little more freely.
Even the Boxing Day sales were attracting the throngs, with Coastlands in Paraparaumu, north of Wellington, chocka by 10am and the likes of consumer electronics chain Noel Leeming enjoying the hum of shoppers in search of a bargain from their 9am opening.
I pick my way slowly
In fact, our local stock market isn’t a bad guide, with the NZX’s benchmark of top 50 companies edging its way to a positive year, while the index of smaller companies revealed stronger growth from those more domestically focused firms – much like the pockets of activity we’ve seen emanating further south from the hearts of Auckland and Wellington where we devote so much of our time fretting about the big ends of business and government.
The sun has been shining in the Kāpiti coast and there’s a proper summery feel for those who’ve been trying to put this year on the backburner in anticipation of better times ahead.
Because for all of our quantifying life through measures such as gross domestic product, the government’s adjusted operating balance before gains and losses, or the Real Estate Institute’s house price index, as former finance minister Grant Robertson was fond of pointing out, the economy isn’t just about numbers, it’s about people.
We respond to prompts just like anything else, and as former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan found out we’re not always rational beings. For all the best-laid plans put in place by our decision-makers, the somewhat artificial worlds we’ve created for our professional selves can sit nicely to one side when there’s a glorious sunset to watch in the fleeting moments with family and friends.
So here’s to the summer reset during one of those moments in our brief lives where we can remember what it’s like to soak up and enjoy the human experience.
Image from James Coleman on Unsplash.
