RBNZ rate cut, F&P earnings make for Big Wednesday
Kiwi Property and Gentrack results are on the radar today.
After a whippy week in markets, New Zealand is waking up with the Reserve Bank’s final monetary policy decision on Wednesday firmly in focus this week, with the central bank expected to deliver a quarter-point cut to the official cash rate and leave the door open for another reduction in 2026.
Meanwhile, a slightly more upbeat domestic earnings season continues with Kiwi Property Group and Gentrack on the calendar today, while NZX-heavyweight Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s Wednesday result is expected to be a strong one.
Australian futures are pointing to a strong start across the Tasman when the ASX opens after Wall Street mounted a comeback on Friday amid reviving hopes the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark rate next month.
And the governing National party joined the 2026 election campaign, with leader – and prime minister – Christopher Luxon rolling out policy to lift KiwiSaver employer and employee contributions to 6% each by 2032.
The turn
Australian futures are pointing to a 1.1% gain for the S&P/ASX 200 index when trading opens across the Tasman, following a recovery on Wall Street on Friday when comments from New York Federal Reserve president John Williams helped revive expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut its federal funds rate next month.
The ASX200 dropped 2.5% last week, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index was down a more modest 0.3%, as volatility heightened amid scepticism about the sustainability of growth in the booming artificial intelligence sector.
The volatility index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, dropped 11% on Friday, but remains elevated at 23.43, while Bticoin nudged up 2.7% to US$86,666 at 7am in Auckland.
Amid that noise, drug company Eli Lilly & Co became the 10th company to crack the US$1 trillion market capitalisation mark on surging demand for weight-loss medicines.
US markets are in for a shortened week with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, followed by the key Black Friday retail period, which will provide a gauge of consumer sentiment in the world’s biggest economy.
US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told NBC’s ‘Meet the Press’ programme on Sunday that he’s optimistic about growth for next year due to rate cuts and lower taxes, and that he doesn’t expect a recession, even with the US$11 billion hit from the 43-day federal government shutdown.
Across the Atlantic, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer Rachel Reeves will deliver the government’s budget on Wednesday, which is expected to announce tax hikes to help shore up the nation’s public finances. The kiwi dollar traded at 42.86 British pence at 7am in Auckland from 42.74 pence last week.
Home again
Domestically, New Zealand’s Reserve Bank will be the main event, with the central bank expected to cut the official cash rate 25 basis points to 2.25% on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in a very small chance of a 50 point cut and economists anticipate the RBNZ’s track for the OCR will leave open the chance for another reduction in the new year under incoming governor Anna Breman.
“We don’t expect the RBNZ’s tone to be as dovish as market expectations, and if that proves to be the case, it has the potential to support the Kiwi as it bounces along near 2025 lows,” ANZ Bank New Zealand economists said in a note.
The kiwi traded at 56.13 US cents at 7am in Auckland from 55.94 cents last week.
Meanwhile, the domestic earnings season continues in what’s had a more positive tone to it. Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s first-half result on Wednesday expected to be a strong one.
Commercial landlord Kiwi Property Group and utilities software firm Gentrack are scheduled to report today.
And National party leader Christopher Luxon, and prime minister, announced his party’s KiwiSaver policy for the 2026 election, pledging to gradually increase employee and employer contributions to 6% each by 2032. The default rates will be voluntary, and people would be able to contribute at lower rates, with their employer matching that level of contribution.
Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Curious News.
