Oil prices climb on US-Iran nerves; Anthropic joins IPO race

Oil prices rose as investors remained nervous about the on-again, off-again headlines on US-Iran peace talks, with President Donald Trump’s latest comments indicating they’re progressing at pace.

While European stock markets cooled, with defence companies weighing on their bourses, Wall Street was broadly stronger as Nvidia marked out a new foray into personal computer chips and chief Jensen Huang played down the threat of artificial intelligence on software firms.

Claude developer Anthropic joined the race to list, with the AI giant confidentially filing papers for an initial public offering, while rival OpenAI faces a lawsuit from the state of Florida accusing the ChatGPT maker of releasing an unsafe product.

And Australian futures are pointing to a soft start to the day for the ASX, while the NZX returns from the long weekend, with dual-listed heavyweights including Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Infratil and a2 Milk Co stumbling across the Tasman on Monday.

Energetic oil

Brent crude oil futures rose 4.5% to US$95.19 a barrel at 7am in Auckland as US President Trump’s changing position on the state of negotiations with Iran kept investors uneasy. The Polymarket prediction market was pricing in a 26% chance of a lasting deal by the end of the month, and a 38% chance by the end of July, while the volatility index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose 2.7% to 15.73.

New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment figures showed on Monday that domestic fuel stocks remained well above the minimum levels, while national carrier Air New Zealand and gateway Auckland International Airport dipped on the ASX in trading yesterday.

“It has been a rollercoaster ride in markets since NZ’s Friday close, not helped by newsflow on US-Iran developments, illustrated by Brent crude trading between US$91.50 and nearly US$98,” Bank of New Zealand senior markets strategist Jason Wong said in a note. “US and Iran talks are apparently back on, but the backdrop remains tense and uncertain.”

European stock markets were broadly weaker on earlier pessimism about the Middle East conflict, with defence companies including Rheinmetall, BAE Systems and Thales among the decliners. The UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.7%, Germany’s DAX declined 0.4% and France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.5%.

Not all gloomy

Meanwhile, Wall Street nudged higher as President Trump said peace talks were continuing at a rapid pace and Nvidia jumped 6.1% as it unveiled a push into PC chips. The chipmaker’s chief executive Jensen Huang also talked up the ability of software firms to thrive in an AI environment, spurring gains among the likes of ServiceNow, Palantir Technologies and SAP.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was marginally higher in late trading, with Salesforce, Nvidia and International Business Machines at the top of the leaderboard. The S&P 500 was up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

Anthropic joined the IPO race, making its confidential filing as a precursor to listing, coming hot on the heels of SpaceX’s upcoming debut.

Greg Boland, market strategy consultant at Moomoo, said AI remains the dominant market theme, with gains for chipmakers, semiconductor firms and AI infrastructure companies.

“With AI leadership still driving markets higher, the key question remains whether economic data and geopolitical developments can justify the sector's extraordinary momentum,” he said in a note.

The state of Florida filed a lawsuit accusing OpenAI of safety failings with its chatbots, which also seeks to hold chief executive Sam Altman personally liable.

Berkshire Hathaway dipped after making its first acquisition under chief executive Greg Abel, agreeing to buy Taylor Morrison Home Corp for US$6.8 billion. Shares of the home builder jumped 22%.

Australian futures are pointing to a 0.2% decline for the S&P/ASX 200 index, following a 0.2% dip on Monday when New Zealand’s NZX was closed.

Moomoo’s Boland said the strong gains for US tech and AI stocks should help support sentiment.

“The NZX may open slightly weaker initially, although offshore market strength could limit any downside,” he said.

The kiwi dollar fell to 59.36 US cents at 7am from 59.69 cents yesterday, and dipped to 82.90 Australian cents from 83.08 cents.

No major local data are scheduled for today.

Reporting by Paul McBeth. Image from Chris LeBoutillier on Unsplash.